12-Month Server Capacity Planning Projection

NexGenIT's infrastructure is running at 55% CPU on the web tier, 60% on the database tier, and 45% on the application tier. With 3 different growth rates and a seasonal peak, the IT manager must project capacity needs 12 months out — by hand — to decide whether to approve a ₹25 lakh infrastructure budget request.

# Aplly.xyz Case Study Submission

## Title
12-Month Server Capacity Planning Projection

## Type
Technology/IT

## Difficulty
Intermediate

## Estimated Time
75 minutes

## Overview
NexGenIT's infrastructure is running at 55% CPU on the web tier, 60% on the database tier, and 45% on the application tier. With 3 different growth rates and a seasonal peak, the IT manager must project capacity needs 12 months out — by hand — to decide whether to approve a ₹25 lakh infrastructure budget request.

## Case Details

Function Focus: Multi-component capacity projection, compound growth estimation, seasonal peak loading, sensitivity analysis on growth assumptions

Scenario:
NexGenIT's CFO has rejected the ₹25 lakh infrastructure upgrade request, arguing that "current utilization is only 55% — there's plenty of headroom." The IT manager knows that each tier grows at a different rate, and the seasonal peak (Diwali/Christmas) can double web traffic. He must produce a 12-month capacity projection broken down by tier (web, app, database) and by resource (CPU, RAM, storage) — computed manually on paper — to demonstrate that at least one tier will hit critical levels within the budget year.

Dataset Structure:
- 3 server tiers with current resource usage and capacity
- Per-tier monthly growth rates (derived from 6-month trend)
- Seasonal peak multiplier (applied to month 11 — November)
- Headroom policy: any tier exceeding 80% utilization triggers a warning; 90% is critical

Tasks:
1. For each tier, project the monthly resource usage (CPU %, RAM GB, Storage TB) across 12 months using compound growth — show the formula and at least one manual calculation per tier
2. Apply the seasonal peak multiplier to month 11 (November) for the web tier — recalculate the web tier's month 11 CPU, RAM, and storage under peak load
3. Identify which tier hits the 80% warning threshold first and in which month — also identify whether any tier hits the 90% critical threshold during the 12-month window
4. Perform a sensitivity check: if the web tier's growth rate is actually 4.5% instead of the estimated 3%, which months do the warning and critical thresholds shift to?
5. Only after submitting your manual projection, re-run the calculations in a spreadsheet or AI tool and report any discrepancies in your threshold timing

Expected Output:
A one-page capacity memo containing: (a) a 12-month projection table for all 3 tiers with at least one sample calculation shown, (b) peak-adjusted November figures, (c) threshold timing analysis (which tier, which month) for both 80% and 90% thresholds, (d) sensitivity analysis under the alternative growth scenario, and (e) a round-trip discrepancy note.

Evaluation Criteria:
Correct compound growth arithmetic for each component (not just a single blended rate), correct application of seasonal multiplier to web tier only, accurate threshold month identification, meaningful sensitivity analysis, and honest discrepancy reporting.

## Data Sources

Current Resource Usage and Capacity:
| Tier | Servers | CPU Capacity (cores) | Current CPU Usage (cores) | CPU Util % | RAM Capacity (GB) | Current RAM Usage (GB) | Storage Capacity (TB) | Current Storage Used (TB) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Web | 6 | 48 | 26.4 | 55% | 192 | 96 | 12 | 4.8 |
| App | 4 | 32 | 14.4 | 45% | 128 | 58 | 20 | 6.0 |
| DB | 3 | 24 | 14.4 | 60% | 96 | 58 | 30 | 10.5 |

Monthly Growth Rates (based on last 6 months of usage data):
| Tier | CPU Growth (per month) | RAM Growth (per month) | Storage Growth (per month) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Web | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| App | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| DB | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.0% |

Seasonal Peak:
- Month 11 (November) web traffic peak: 1.8× multiplier on CPU and RAM; storage unaffected
- App and DB tiers do not get a seasonal multiplier (their load is internal, not customer-facing)

Thresholds:
- Warning: 80% utilization on any resource in any tier
- Critical: 90% utilization on any resource in any tier
- Provisioning lead time: 8 weeks — any tier hitting warning within 3 months needs immediate action

Constants:
- Month 1 = current month (projection starts from current levels)
- Compound formula: projected = current × (1 + rate)^months
- Round to 1 decimal place

## Solution Frameworks
Compound growth projection, multi-resource capacity planning, seasonal peak analysis, single-variable sensitivity analysis

## Solver Guidance & Tutorials
Link to: "Infrastructure Capacity Planning Without Tools" tutorial

## What You'll Learn
- Projecting multi-resource capacity needs using compound growth
- Identifying which resource and tier will bottleneck first
- Incorporating seasonal peaks into capacity estimates
- Stress-testing growth assumptions with sensitivity analysis

## Tags
capacity planning, infrastructure, growth projection, IT operations, seasonal peak

## Registration Links
- Register as Solver
- Register as Evaluator

Current Resource Usage and Capacity:
| Tier | Servers | CPU Capacity (cores) | Current CPU Usage (cores) | CPU Util % | RAM Capacity (GB) | Current RAM Usage (GB) | Storage Capacity (TB) | Current Storage Used (TB) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Web | 6 | 48 | 26.4 | 55% | 192 | 96 | 12 | 4.8 |
| App | 4 | 32 | 14.4 | 45% | 128 | 58 | 20 | 6.0 |
| DB | 3 | 24 | 14.4 | 60% | 96 | 58 | 30 | 10.5 |

Monthly Growth Rates (based on last 6 months of usage data):
| Tier | CPU Growth (per month) | RAM Growth (per month) | Storage Growth (per month) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Web | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| App | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| DB | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.0% |

Seasonal Peak:
- Month 11 (November) web traffic peak: 1.8× multiplier on CPU and RAM; storage unaffected
- App and DB tiers do not get a seasonal multiplier (their load is internal, not customer-facing)

Thresholds:
- Warning: 80% utilization on any resource in any tier
- Critical: 90% utilization on any resource in any tier
- Provisioning lead time: 8 weeks — any tier hitting warning within 3 months needs immediate action

Constants:
- Month 1 = current month (projection starts from current levels)
- Compound formula: projected = current × (1 + rate)^months
- Round to 1 decimal place

Compound growth projection, multi-resource capacity planning, seasonal peak analysis, single-variable sensitivity analysis