The 95% Coverage That Hides Empty Benches: School Meal KPI Deep-Dive

A school meal program dashboard reports 95% coverage — meals served vs meals planned. But the analyst notices that planned meals are based on reported enrollment (2,400 children), while actual daily attendance averages only 1,920. True coverage (meals served ÷ children present) may be far lower. She must decompose the KPI and reveal what the headline is hiding.

# Aplly.xyz Case Study Submission

## Title
The 95% Coverage That Hides Empty Benches: School Meal KPI Deep-Dive

## Type
Data Analytics

## Difficulty
Advanced

## Estimated Time
75 minutes

## Overview
A school meal program dashboard reports 95% coverage — meals served vs meals planned. But the analyst notices that planned meals are based on reported enrollment (2,400 children), while actual daily attendance averages only 1,920. True coverage (meals served ÷ children present) may be far lower. She must decompose the KPI and reveal what the headline is hiding.

## Case Details

Function Focus: KPI denominator critique, attendance-adjusted coverage calculation, phantom enrollment detection, month-by-month variance analysis

Scenario:
The Mid-Day Meal Scheme dashboard for Guntur district reports a proud 95% coverage rate for the current academic year. The KPI formula: meals served ÷ meals planned (where meals planned = reported enrollment × school days). The analyst suspects the number is misleading because schools report enrollment at the start of the year but actual attendance fluctuates — some schools have reported 2,400 enrolled children but daily attendance rarely exceeds 1,920. If coverage is recalculated using actual children present, the true coverage might look very different. She has monthly data for 6 schools across 3 months. She must manually reconstruct the true coverage before the quarterly review.

Dataset Structure:
- 6 schools, 3 months (Jul, Aug, Sep)
- Per school: reported enrollment, meals planned, meals served, average daily attendance
- Coverage formula used by dashboard: meals served ÷ meals planned
- Coverage the analyst wants: meals served ÷ (attendance × school days)

Tasks:
1. For each school-month, compute the dashboard's coverage (meals served ÷ meals planned) and average the 18 data points to confirm the 95% headline
2. For each school-month, compute the attendance-adjusted coverage (meals served ÷ (attendance × school days)) — show the formula and at least 3 manual calculations
3. Identify the school with the largest gap between dashboard coverage and attendance-adjusted coverage — calculate the gap and explain whether the gap is driven by phantom enrollment (inflated headcount) or chronic absenteeism
4. For each of the 3 months, calculate the district-wide average attendance rate (attendance ÷ enrollment) and state whether the gap is growing, shrinking, or stable over the quarter
5. Only after submitting your manual analysis, re-run the calculations in a spreadsheet or AI tool and report any discrepancies — then recommend a revised KPI definition for the dashboard

Expected Output:
A KPI audit memo containing: (a) 18-row table confirming the 95% dashboard headline, (b) 18-row attendance-adjusted coverage table with sample calculations, (c) identification of the worst-offending school with gap analysis, (d) monthly attendance trend analysis, (e) recommended KPI revision, and (f) round-trip discrepancy note.

Evaluation Criteria:
Correct computation of both coverage definitions across all 18 school-months, correct identification of the school with the largest gap, meaningful distinction between phantom enrollment and chronic absenteeism as drivers, clear monthly trend, and a specific, implementable KPI revision recommendation.

## Data Sources

Monthly School Meal Data (3 months × 6 schools = 18 rows):
| School | Month | Reported Enrollment | School Days | Meals Planned | Meals Served | Avg Daily Attendance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPS North | Jul | 400 | 22 | 8,800 | 8,400 | 340 |
| GPS North | Aug | 400 | 21 | 8,400 | 8,000 | 335 |
| GPS North | Sep | 400 | 23 | 9,200 | 8,900 | 330 |
| GPS South | Jul | 350 | 22 | 7,700 | 7,400 | 310 |
| GPS South | Aug | 350 | 21 | 7,350 | 7,100 | 305 |
| GPS South | Sep | 350 | 23 | 8,050 | 7,800 | 300 |
| GHS East | Jul | 500 | 22 | 11,000 | 10,600 | 420 |
| GHS East | Aug | 500 | 21 | 10,500 | 10,100 | 410 |
| GHS East | Sep | 500 | 23 | 11,500 | 11,200 | 400 |
| GHS West | Jul | 450 | 22 | 9,900 | 9,500 | 380 |
| GHS West | Aug | 450 | 21 | 9,450 | 9,200 | 375 |
| GHS West | Sep | 450 | 23 | 10,350 | 10,000 | 370 |
| KPS Central | Jul | 380 | 22 | 8,360 | 8,000 | 340 |
| KPS Central | Aug | 380 | 21 | 7,980 | 7,700 | 335 |
| KPS Central | Sep | 380 | 23 | 8,740 | 8,400 | 330 |
| KPS Town | Jul | 320 | 22 | 7,040 | 6,800 | 290 |
| KPS Town | Aug | 320 | 21 | 6,720 | 6,500 | 285 |
| KPS Town | Sep | 320 | 23 | 7,360 | 7,100 | 280 |

Dashboard KPI Definition (current):
- Coverage (%) = Total Meals Served ÷ Total Meals Planned × 100
- Meals Planned = Reported Enrollment × School Days in month
- Target: ≥ 90%

Context:
- Reported enrollment is collected once per year (April)
- Schools receive grain allocations based on reported enrollment
- Surplus grain can be diverted by schools if enrollment is inflated

## Solution Frameworks
KPI denominator auditing, phantom enrollment detection, attendance-adjusted coverage, metric decomposition, policy recommendation

## Solver Guidance & Tutorials
Link to: "KPI Integrity Audits for Social Program Dashboards" tutorial

## What You'll Learn
- Detecting when a KPI denominator is misleading
- Distinguishing phantom enrollment from genuine absenteeism
- Recalculating true program coverage with correct denominators
- Recommending metric changes that decision-makers will trust

## Tags
school meals, KPI audit, coverage metrics, attendance analysis, public health

## Registration Links
- Register as Solver
- Register as Evaluator

Monthly School Meal Data (3 months × 6 schools = 18 rows):
| School | Month | Reported Enrollment | School Days | Meals Planned | Meals Served | Avg Daily Attendance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPS North | Jul | 400 | 22 | 8,800 | 8,400 | 340 |
| GPS North | Aug | 400 | 21 | 8,400 | 8,000 | 335 |
| GPS North | Sep | 400 | 23 | 9,200 | 8,900 | 330 |
| GPS South | Jul | 350 | 22 | 7,700 | 7,400 | 310 |
| GPS South | Aug | 350 | 21 | 7,350 | 7,100 | 305 |
| GPS South | Sep | 350 | 23 | 8,050 | 7,800 | 300 |
| GHS East | Jul | 500 | 22 | 11,000 | 10,600 | 420 |
| GHS East | Aug | 500 | 21 | 10,500 | 10,100 | 410 |
| GHS East | Sep | 500 | 23 | 11,500 | 11,200 | 400 |
| GHS West | Jul | 450 | 22 | 9,900 | 9,500 | 380 |
| GHS West | Aug | 450 | 21 | 9,450 | 9,200 | 375 |
| GHS West | Sep | 450 | 23 | 10,350 | 10,000 | 370 |
| KPS Central | Jul | 380 | 22 | 8,360 | 8,000 | 340 |
| KPS Central | Aug | 380 | 21 | 7,980 | 7,700 | 335 |
| KPS Central | Sep | 380 | 23 | 8,740 | 8,400 | 330 |
| KPS Town | Jul | 320 | 22 | 7,040 | 6,800 | 290 |
| KPS Town | Aug | 320 | 21 | 6,720 | 6,500 | 285 |
| KPS Town | Sep | 320 | 23 | 7,360 | 7,100 | 280 |

Dashboard KPI Definition (current):
- Coverage (%) = Total Meals Served ÷ Total Meals Planned × 100
- Meals Planned = Reported Enrollment × School Days in month
- Target: ≥ 90%

Context:
- Reported enrollment is collected once per year (April)
- Schools receive grain allocations based on reported enrollment
- Surplus grain can be diverted by schools if enrollment is inflated

KPI denominator auditing, phantom enrollment detection, attendance-adjusted coverage, metric decomposition, policy recommendation